Football betting and information value
This article was originally published at https://www.pinnacle.com/no/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/why-information-is-more-important-than-betting-tips/4JN2TV54T54NDXSQ
The value of information in football betting
Knowing something before everyone else knows it is one of the keys to successful betting. Instead of just relying on betting tips, smart betting players will gather as much relevant data as possible, analyze the effect this may have on the market and use the results to bet smart. When new or previously unknown information appears, it can have a major effect on the football betting markets, and thus also affect how you should bet money.
The difference between tips and information
Factors such as low margins and high stakes limits are important for betting players, but such things can still become useless if you lack the right information. Betting players who have access to relevant and (even more importantly) precise information, and who can act on this before others have time to do so, will be richly rewarded. When the information becomes publicly available, bookmakers have already adjusted their odds.
The latest available odds before the market closes. A betting player who “beats the final odds”, has placed a bet that gives a better return than one would get by betting on the last odds offered before the market closes. If you consistently beat the final odds, it means that you are a skilled betting player.
Information will not necessarily tell you who will be the winner and should be bet on, but will help you consistently beat the final odds. In other words, the smallest details that can give a clue as to how a team or athlete can perform in a football match are critically important if you want odds that provide the best possible value.
A fact about an upcoming football match can go from being the latest news to being widely known in an instant.
Football betting players have access to various sources of information, ranging from digital streams to contacts with inside information. When it comes to football betting, these sources can provide insight into news about teams, coaches’ plans for the next game or even more unusual things like a team threatening to strike due to disagreements over pay.
Football bookmakers may have in-depth knowledge of the sport, but in most cases they give their advice only based on subjective opinions. Some betting tips may boast an impressive history of accurate predictions, but there are always elements of luck and survival bias in their results.
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Fact information is exactly what it sounds like: facts. The fact that an upcoming football match can go from being the latest news to the old news in just a moment, but if you are the first to know things that no one else knows, it gives an advantage as a tipper.
A person who offers betting tips can correctly predict that team A will beat team B because their match history shows that team A has done better in the past and team B is considered to be in bad shape at the moment. A smart tipper, on the other hand, can find value in the odds on team B by betting on them the day before the match, after finding out that the best player on team A was injured in training.
How can betting players benefit from information?
There are several examples this season that betting players can benefit from getting information before anyone else:
FC Astana vs. Manchester United (Europa League, 28 November 2019)
When Manchester United qualified in their Europa League group with two games left, people began to speculate that Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s team would use the opportunity to let the first team rest and let selected players from the youth team get practice during the meeting against FC Astana.
The potential gain from a € 100 bet on FC Astana to win fell to less than half.
These speculations were confirmed when Solskjær stated two days before the match that “a few” players from the youth team would attend the press conference before the match, and United published the player list for the upcoming away match. This confirmed that a number of youth players would play in the match, while several of the members of the first team would stand over the trip to Kazakhstan.
This had an immediate effect on the market. Pinnacle’s odds of FC Astana winning went from 8.94 to 4.09. This means that the potential payout from a bet of € 100 had been reduced to less than half, from € 894 to € 409. The odds of a draw fell from 5.81 to 3.81, while the odds of a United win went from 1, 31 to 1.89.
In other markets, the odds of less than 2.5 goals in the match fell sharply, from 2.91 to 1.97, and the odds of a United victory with -1.5 in handicap almost doubled, from 1.84 to 3.50.
Granada vs. Barcelona (La Liga, September 21, 2019)
Earlier in the season, Barcelona played a league match away against Granada. Ernesto Valverde had given some hints that B
arcelona had to make changes in the team, and the match took place during a busy period. Barcelona had visited Borussia Dortmund for a Champions League match three days earlier, and they were to play another league match against Villarreal three days later.
When the line-up was published, it turned out surprisingly enough that Lionel Messi would start the match on the bench for Barcelona, and that they also sent out what most people considered a second-rate defensive line.
The odds on Barcelona changed only by a small margin, but during the last hour before kick-off, the odds of Granada winning went from 8.68 to 7.20 – which reduced the potential payout for a bet of € 100 by € 148. The odds of a draw also fell, from 5.23 to 4.85, and the potential payout for a bet of € 100 also fell by € 48. There were also smaller, but still important movements in other markets: Granada win with +0.5 handicap dropped from 3.31 to 2.95, and the odds of less than 1.5 goals in the match dropped from 5.19 to 4.90.
Chelsea vs. Liverpool (FA Cup, March 3, 2020)
When Liverpool were drawn against Chelsea in the fifth round of this season’s FA Cup, there was uncertainty about the strength of the team Jürgen Klopp would field. In the previous two rounds, against Everton and Shrewsbury Town, Liverpool sent out teams with a high proportion of youth players, but it was uncertain whether this trend would continue against a stronger opponent such as Chelsea.
Two betting players who placed the same bet at different times had been given very different odds.
On the night of the match, a picture circulated online that most of the first team to Liverpool went for a walk together in a park in London, which clearly implied that Klopp would pose with a relatively strong team.
As a result, Pinnacle’s odds on Liverpool’s victory fell from 3.25 to 2.74, so that they actually went from being outsiders to favorites. The odds on a draw were also reduced from 3.59 to 3.32, and the odds of a Liverpool win with +0.5 in handicap fell from 3.19 to 2.74.
The point here is not what the result was in these matches (although it is worth noting that both FC Astana and Granada won their matches), but the fact that two betting players who placed bets in the same market, got completely different odds depending on when the bets were placed.
If a betting player knew of Solskjær’s plan to field more youth players before the bookmaker did, and reacted quickly, it would have given significantly better value for money than one would get if one bet money after the press conference was held and the team line-up was published.
Identify information that cannot be obtained via football betting tips
These examples show that getting team information before everyone else does, is perhaps the most common way to gain benefits as a tipper. However, there are also several other types of information, especially about off-field conditions that can affect the results, which can be even more useful in football betting.
This can often happen in the lower leagues of a country. An important example occurred in October 2012, when the team at Kettering Town had come up with an ultimatum related to unpaid salaries during a period when the team was struggling financially. Most bookmakers (and bookmakers) were not aware of this.
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In the end, Kettering fielded only ten players in their next Southern Premier League match against Bashley, and then lost the match, not particularly surprisingly, 7-0.
It was impossible to predict this result based on Kettering’s recent form of play, so betting players who knew about the pay dispute and the ultimatum could take advantage of the odds on Bashley because they knew the team would likely have a huge advantage in the match.
Distinguish between unfounded rumors and important information
The rise of social media over the last decade has led to football betting players today having access to more information and news in real time than ever before. This has also contributed to the emergence of betting tips in football, who all claim to have important information.
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Unfortunately, it is generally very difficult to confirm how credible and reliable the source of this information actually is. It could simply be tipping tips trying to attract more visitors to their sites, or a modern version of the whisper game with unreliable information. The fact is that there is significantly more false and unreliable information than accurate and useful information out there.
It can pay to react quickly to “leaked” information before others have time to do so, but it can also be punished if it turns out that the information is incorrect. If you are going to bet large sums on football matches, it is at least as important to rely on reliable sources as you can trust to come with the right information.